Friday, October 30, 2020
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Markets to continue both sides movement (Market Watch)

October 06, 2020 06:23 AM
The week gone by had mere four trading days but had plenty of action in it. It had two days of super gains on Monday and Thursday and two flat days. It gained 1,308.39 points or 3.50 per cent to close at 38,697.05 points. NIFTY gained 366.70 points or 3.32 per cent to close at 11,416.95 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 3.31 per cent, 3.31 per cent and 3.30 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 3.32 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 3.28 per cent. Markets gaining almost identical between 3.28 per cent to 3.32 per cent is a rare event and I do not recall having seen such an event in a very long time. I am not sure what to make out of it but am sure that time will make us wiser.
The Indian rupee gained 47 paisa or 0.64 per cent to close at Rs 73.14 to the US dollar. Dow Jones gained 545.85 points or 2.01 per cent to close at 27,682.81 points. President Donald Trump, seeking re-election for the US Presidency has been diagnosed with Covid-19 and it makes the November 2 election that much closer and interesting.
The week was focused on the primary markets with three new issues and two listings. The first new issue from Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited, saw overwhelming response and was oversubscribed 157.41 times. QIB portion was subscribed 89.78 times, HNI portion 678.88 times, Retail portion 35.63 times and Employee portion 3.86 times. There were 26.31 lac forms. The issue garnered subscription of Rs 69,838 crore against an issue size of just Rs 443.68 crore.
The second primary issue was from UTI Asset Management Company Limited which was subscribed 2.31 times overall. The QIB portion was subscribed 3.34 times. HNI portion subscribed 0.93 times, Retail portion subscribed 2.32 times and Employee portion subscribed 1.34 times. There were 8.80 lac applications.
The third primary issue from Likhitha Infrastructure Limited was undersubscribed in the QIB category and was hence extended. The issue was subscribed overall 8.43 times but received bids for just 0.45 times the QIB portion. The QB portion which was 50 per cent of the issue size of 51 lac shares has now been changed to 1 per cent of the issue size and the HNI portion which was earlier 15 per cent been changed to 64 per cent. What is interesting to note is the interpretation being taken in the issue by the regulator that upto 50 per cent can be anything up to a maximum of 50 per cent. This will change the popular perception that issuers of capital, merchant bankers and investors had earlier that every issue had to have a compulsory allocation of 50 per cent reserved for institutional investors. This can now be flexible and can be just about anything from 1 per cent to 50 per cent. This would make fund raising that much easier as many more companies would tap the markets going forward. There is another category where 75 per cent of the issue is reserved for QIB's in case there is lack of profits or some other conditions.
The first listing was from Computer Management Services Limited or (CAMS) which had issued shares at Rs 1,230. Shares were traded on the BSE only, as the offer for sale was from NSE Investments, an associate company of NSE and hence trading was not allowed there. Since they no longer own shares in CAMS, trading in CAMS share would be allowed from Monday on the NSE as well. Shares debuted at Rs 1,518, touched a high of Rs 1,550, made a low of Rs 1,306.20 and finally settled to close at Rs 1,401.60, a gain of Rs 171.60 or 13.95 per cent. The delivery of 71 lac shares on listing day was 55.28 per cent of the non-anchor IPO size of 128.27 lac shares. There were institutional purchases on day one of 32.48 lac shares at an average price of Rs 1,482.37. This indicates ample interest in the share going forward. At the current closing price, leveraged HNI's would be losing money as the funding cost was in the range of Rs 185-198.
The second listing was from Chemcon Speciality Chemicals Limited which had issued shares at Rs 340 and was subscribed 149.33 times. The discovered price was Rs 730.95 on BSE and Rs 731 on NSE. The share after touching a high of Rs 743.80 on BSE and Rs 731.25 on NSE, fell to the low and lower circuit of Rs 584.80 on both exchanges, where the share also closed. The gains registered were 72 per cent. The cost of interest for the leveraged HNI was between Rs 205-220. If the share slips another Rs 25, then there would be losses for the leveraged HNI. Delivery percentage on non-anchor issue size is 88.55 per cent. This implies that the share could be under pressure in the coming days.
Covid-19 saw the number pf patients globally go up to 3,51,39,699 people with 10,38,057 deaths and 2,61,28,410 people having recovered. In India the number of affected people is 65,49,373 patients with 1,01,812 deaths and 55,09,966 people having recovered. Compared to the previous week the number of new patients globally is 20,80,949 with 89,280 deaths and 17,16,638 people having recovered. In India there were 5,56,840 new patients, 7,278 deaths and 5,68,339 people having recovered. This is the second consecutive wee when we have seen larger number of patients recovering then new patients which is certainly a welcome sign.
Coming to the markets, we have shares of Angel Broking Limited to list on Monday. The listing is expected to be lacklustre. While markets have rallied strongly in the previous week with BFSI sector leading the pack, expect markets to be choppy and volatile. While there could be some more upside left on expectations of yet another stimulus being announced in the US and liquidity from there flowing through global markets into India as well, there could be delays in the same. Continue to sell on strong rallies and buy on sharp dips for the time being.
(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)
 
 
 
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